5 Comments

The graph is shocking. The variation over at least two orders of magnitude. How is that possible within one species? The US sticking out as badly as El Salvador.

Expand full comment

It's based open an overly simplistic model of human nature. There are bad people and there good people, but the former group only composes about 1% of the population- and only half of those a problem (at least in terms of violence).

One prime example of flawed thinking lies with longer prison sentences. Other than locking people up who are a danger to the public, they accomplish nothing in terms of deterrence. What does work, according to JBP, is increasing the frequency with which criminals get caught.

So less money on prisons, more money on police officers- especially trained detectives and golden hour policing. CCTV's in known crime hotspots and better forensics are also advisable.

This is tragedy which muddles the thinking of left-leaning liberals in America- they incorrectly attribute their Criminal Justice failings on good policing practices, when the true blame for their failures lies with tough talking politicians.

Of course, there also failings within American policing. Leaving it for the courts to decide is an abdication of duty. Most countries insist that the exercise of discretion is something which most countries insist of their police officers- when in America you can actually get charged for it!

A police officer should be just as duty bound to discount a fine to a little old lady on social security, as they should be to ask around the local community to see whether a particular kid is good one, and file a report without charge for minor offences. Leaving it to prosecutors really is passing the buck, as most (but not all) are too busy to get their shoes dirty.

Expand full comment

Thoughtful as always Geary. I'm involved with a bunch of convicts in one particular prison in Washington State thru something called the Prison Math Project -- rehabilitation thru mathematics of all things. Anyway you get to know these guys. James: accessory to murder during a botched holdup when he was 17 -- 40 years. Nicest guy. Chance of reoffending: near zero. Christopher: meth-head gangsta, murdered a rival as usual. 30 years. Now a published mathematician who wants to devote the rest of his life to helping others. They won't even let him have access to the internet. Jon: domestic murder -- guy is high functioning autistic, doesn't do very well in prison. Poet, philosopher, 15 years to go. Marshall: just got out! Now he has to learn what an iphone is. It stinks.

Expand full comment

Americans don't do nuance, prefer zero tolerance to avoid having to think things through, and still believe they can create ever more laws to solve problems without regard to the trade-offs.

Expand full comment

Yeah, Thomas Sowell is dead right about that one- there are no such thing as solutions in government, only trade-offs. The real problem is the partisan landscape- with everybody and their dog trying to paint a particular position as ideological, much of the progress actually made is of the retrograde variety.

The only reason why zero tolerance was at all effective was because it was a type of messaging which 'tough on crime' politicians could get behind, allowing senior police to extract blood from a stone for resources they so desperately needed for the first time in a generation. Bloody speaking, it was a battle axe when the situation required a scalpel.

The other thing to think about is the political incentives. It's why it's relatively easy to lower a speed limit, and all but impossible to increase it- even if the residents want it and it makes perfect sense to do so- nobody wants to be blamed for the freakish statistical outlier. The net result is that hundreds of inmates rot in prison for every one life potentially saved. It's why screening for psychopaths for release would prove so effective in reducing numbers- at the violent crime end of the spectrum the stats are close to 50-50, but for offences like drug dealing the scales are stacked somewhat differently.

In the UK, sentences for cocaine dealing (probably because of the associated violence) are the highest at around 39 months, closely followed by heroin at 35 months. In the US, the top 10 States range from 108 months in Mississippi for Meth, to 80 months in South Dakota (also for Meth). Generally, you only need to disrupt the individual from the activity for long enough that they no longer have the active affiliation to support them in maintaining their territory. This represents a huge waste in taxpayer resources, because everyone knows there is always some fresh dumb kid willing to take the dealers place.

Shorter sentences, more police and community resources, disrupting the activity at the retail end- so that people's kids can walk to school without being hassled by drug dealers. More training and employers willing to step forward- so that these kids can become productive citizens when they re-enter society, instead of a continuous drain on the public purse.

Expand full comment