Many on the Right will no doubt be outraged and angry about PM Justin Trudeau’s recent comments about the Freedom Convoy, the Canadian trucker protest, which has thus far been carried out without any violence- but the truth is, in order to prevent all-out political warfare in a country which is fast becoming an epicentre for what can only be described as the Western equivalent of a Maoist Cultural Revolution- based upon the West’s own brand of PC authoritarianism- the correct response should be pity. Pity that so many, especially amongst cultural elites and the once highly esteemed ranks of Canadian journalism. have fallen prey to what can only be described as a mass societal delusion on COVID-19.
To be fair, they aren’t the only ones. In the past year of the Pandemic two main forms of anchor bias have emerged. The first is the belief more common amongst conservatives that the vaccines are somehow unsafe. Of course, the vaccines are not entirely without risk- but the conservative bias goes too far in its assertions, refusing to accept that in most instances the risk reward ratio of vaccination is a net positive for personal safety. Conservatives may refute it, and point to the generally very low risk for anyone under 50, but the fact remains that in most instances, if you are double vaccinated and get COVID you are 11 times less likely to die. In the eventual After Action Report, when more countries- like the UK- recognise that Omicron represents the exit to the pandemic (through the virus becoming endemic), much will be made of the lives which could have been saved, if only more people had been vaccinated.
But that being said, the other type of anchor bias is far more dangerous and insidious- the mistaken belief that vaccination somehow prevents virus spread. It really hasn’t been true since the emergence of Delta. The 40% reduced chance of catching and spreading COVID-19 asserted by the WHO through vaccination against Delta may sound as though it still represents a partial shield against COVID-19- as though it might somehow limit general virus spread, or reduce the R numbers to the point that infections wane rather than wax, but anyone familiar with network theory or the variability to human interaction and individual immunity will know that this belief is mistaken, an illusion. Even before Delta was displaced by Omicron, more widespread vaccination in any country one would care to name would have only slowed the virus, perhaps giving the especially vulnerable a few more months until it struck.
It is little wonder that Canadians are so fearful at the moment. The 7-day rolling average for deaths in Canada has reached the levels seen in the last two peaks of COVID-19- first at the very start of the pandemic and then when Delta reached their shores last year. But here is the thing- I would invite anyone who really wants to challenge their own beliefs about COVID-19 to use these two resources in tandem:
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million...
More than 4.81 billion people worldwide have received a Covid-19 vaccine, equal to about 62.6 percent of the world population.
One can quickly discern four patterns emerging, if one examines the data critically. First, in countries with high rates of vaccination and high rates of deaths per million (from previous peaks in infections and deaths), current Omicron deaths are a tiny fraction of their former peaks. Second, for countries with low rates of vaccination and previously low rates of death per million (mainly in Africa), current rates of death are relatively low. A simple look at the 7-day average of death shows that this is largely due to natural immunity acquired during the death peaks last year, generally around August.
But it the second group of two trends which is most interesting. First, we have the cluster of SE European countries with low rates of vaccination. Here deaths remain moderately high despite previously high rates of death from or with COVID-19. One would have thought that their experience should echo that of countries in Africa, but an older and less healthy population probably means that without vaccination, deaths will remain moderately high from Omicron. Finally, we have countries like Canada, which have reasonably high levels of vaccination, yet haven’t experienced anywhere near the levels of death per million as countries like the UK, Spain, France or the US.
These countries are experiencing death levels commensurate with previous peaks, and it must seem as though there is every reason to panic and introduce draconian measures, but unfortunately with Omicron the virus is too infectious to stop and higher levels of vaccination will be ineffective at stopping the spread (although it could be effective for those who are both vulnerable and still unvaccinated). It may be a difficult pill for some to swallow, but for those countries which have been fortunate throughout the pandemic the prevention of death will not be achieved by curtailing the freedoms of those who remain stubbornly unvaccinated. Vaccination no longer prevents virus spread- especially not with Omicron. Instead, if they want to protect their older and more vulnerable populations then it is time to enact the Great Barrington Declaration, however belated this measure which could have saved countless lives now might now be.
If you don’t agree with my conclusions look at the data yourself- use the Worldometer source to check the graphs for 7-day rolling averages of deaths, focus upon deaths per million and look at the NYT source for the map and rates of vaccination. If you don’t believe me, try and disprove me.
The problem is that however well-meaning the Canadian population might be, evidence shows that they are hugely misinformed about the subject of vaccination in relation to virus spread. Polling shows 67% of them support further restrictions on the unvaccinated. 49% blame the unvaccinated for prolonging the pandemic- a position which is deeply flawed when one considers that the proposition requires that to ‘end it’, the unvaccinated must be force vaccinated to protect themselves. This suspension of disbelief requires that we not only abhor the unvaccinated for supposedly spreading the virus, but also focus all our efforts on primarily trying to save them, specifically…
Like many other countries which have not experienced high death tolls (and some that have)- and I am thinking about Australia specifically here- they seem to be experiencing what academics have long referred to as ‘parasite stress’- namely the proven link in larger societies between the introduction of a new pathogen and the emergence of nascent authoritarianism. Nevermind that it won’t work- or that much of the doubt which conservatives now feel towards the media, academic institutions in general and scientific institutions specifically is somewhat justifiably linked to the perception that these institutions have become incredibly Left-dominated in recent years, and deliberately set out to delegitimate conservative perspectives. And the problem is, it also leads to journalism like this:
After confirming he and two of his children tested positive for COVID-19, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned the actions of the demonstrators in Ottawa.
Granted, it is highly unfortunate that these completely peaceful protests were marred by the presence of a tiny number of swastikas and a single confederate flag, but we’ve known for some time that both the Far Right and White Supremacist groups have long seen Western conservative movements, particularly American Conservativism, as the biggest roadblock to their ability to recruit and radicalise new members. Of course, they are going to make their presence felt at any publicly visible conservative gathering, because their primary strategic aim is to discredit Conservative movements as a means of growing their tiny support base. There is similar loathing within Antifa circles towards more mainstream centre Left liberals, with the majority of Leftist cancel culture directed towards lesser known moderate and liberal academics or media figures, rather than the rare exceptions of Alex Jones or Joe Rogan.
But what exactly is this type of journalism supposed to achieve, other than further alienating conservatives from mainstream sources, and encouraging hatred towards both the unvaxxed and conservatives amongst liberals? We know that vaccinated doesn’t stop virus spread just as surely as we know that in most instances it is the rational choice to make, when one looks at the odds to oneself in terms of personal risk (and provided one trusts the majority of expert opinion). Worse still, it blinds those countries fortunate enough to escape the inescapable conclusion that if they want to protect their vulnerable and elderly, then they need to advise them that they need to curtail most of their indoor social activity, if they want to remain largely risk-free.
One wonders whether much of the matter is determined by the fact that a disproportionate percentage of the Great and the Good in Western societies, our most powerful and influential citizens, are old or elderly. Maybe they think they can cheat COVID-19 and the Grim Reaper by imposing restrictions on lesser citizens, but in this they are deluded and misinformed. They haven’t stayed up-to-date with the most current information. It’s a choice, whether one wants to accept the risk of going about one’s normal daily life, socialising as normal, or whether one wants to cloister oneself off from the world. With Omicron, it ultimately matters little what other people do. Alternatively, maybe it’s time to offer over sixties and the obese or comorbid over fifties a vaccine every couple of months. It would do more to prevent risks to the vulnerable vaccinated than any of the continued demonization and vilification of the unvaccinated, or any of the various types of restrictions tried to date.
Addendum: Apparently, many of the swastikas present at the trucker protest were there to make unfavourable comparisons between the Nazis and the Canadian Government in general, and Justin Trudeau specifically. Whilst it is true that small elements of the protest were groups like the Proud Boys and the Sons of Odin, drawn out by a cause they were sympathetic towards and looking to the protest as a possible recruitment venue, the association of the protest with Nazi sympathisers appears to be largely a false framing device by Left-wing media- aiming to smear the protest.
This article details the subject in greater depth:
My career as a political essayist began 13 years ago. I had been asked by a left-wing Canadian website to expand on my views about a then-ongoing constitutional crisis—and explain why public opinion had turned so sharply in favour of then-prime...
Nice summary Geary. You know, it is just pathetic how hard the MSM are trying to paint The Convoy as 'racist'. A confederate flag! A confederate flag! Help! Help! We're triggered! Desecration! Desecration! Turns out someone taped a sign to Terry Fox. Pulling down a statue of MacDonald would be fine, however. One zealot even charged the truckers with ... *misogyny*. Help! Help! A misogynist! Justin, save us! What a pathetic country I live in.
Okay Geary, a little lesson in Canadian legal rights is in order. You got a lot right and a lot wrong here. Mostly, the part where you think government should have the right to mandate vaccines, which under Canadian Law it does not. Trudeau and in fact all Canadians and foreign commentators like you might want to refresh their knowledge by reading the Canadian Charter of Rights. Among the rights granted to EVERYONE, is the protection of the right to life, liberty and security of the person. There was a challenge to the law against abortion in 1988, and that law was struck down under this provision because Bertha Wilson, at that time the only woman Chief Justice of Canada said that " the problem was the substance of the law (against abortion) that denied a woman the right to control her own body ...." The right to control our own bodies is thus assured by this important precedent. I don't need a lecture on the misinformation on the safety or efficacy of the vaccines. I know all of it. I am capable of making my own risk benefit assessment without harassment from pubic figures and woke jerks like Trudeau. I am 81 years old and I am going to die on my own terms. The Canadian Charter of Rights agrees. Everything that is happening with regard to the vaccine mandates in Canada is illegal. Any good lawyer could take this case to the Supreme Court and win because we have a precedent, one of the foundations of our legal system. There is more going on here than so called public health. I have a conspiracy theory for you, but never mind.
So the plural of anecdote isn’t data, but I was at a New Years party with a group of friends. All of us were vaccinated and boosted (triple vaxxed if you will). One girl got COVID and apparently had it at the party (she started having symptoms and tested positive the next day). None of the rest of us got it. Even her boyfriend. Now, some infected people just don’t shed the virus in high doses. There was some interesting research into potentially a Pareto-esque distribution of COVID spreading (most people infect nobody and some superspreaders infect everybody - mainly due to viral load, not necessarily behavior). BUT one takeaway is that the vaccines do work to limit transmission. And that fact is borne out by the data. Of course, as you point out, they don’t stop transmission. But they do mute the spread and slow the spread.
Of course, I was a Great Barrington proponent from the start and never thought our strategy should include lockdowns. And I’ve never bought the idea - common to some - that COVID spread primarily due to “bad” behavior. I’ve long pushed back on the idea that getting it was some kind of character flaw.
Think Michael Shellenberger was one of the first to apply the idea of sanctity/purity to COVID attitudes. It falls out of the idea that as religion declines religious impulses pop out in new ways. But mankind has long applied attitudes of religion and shame/cleanliness to disease. What Shellenberger clued me into was the fact that in some circles, there is an idea that being unvaccinated is somehow impure or unclean. It violates their sense of the sacred (invoking Jonathan Haidt’s moral foundations here).
A confederate flag in Canada? As someone who grew up in the state where the Confederacy had its capital, I find that funny. Saw that flag daily for most of my life and I thought it was weird enough to see it in the Midwest or in West Virginia (where it’s actually pretty prevalent, which is incredibly ironic). In Canada it’s just crazy.
“ Far Right and White Supremacist groups have long seen Western conservative movements, particularly American Conservativism, as the biggest roadblock to their ability to recruit and radicalise new members. Of course, they are going to make their presence felt at any publicly visible conservative gathering, because their primary strategic aim is to discredit Conservative movements as a means of growing their tiny support base. There is similar loathing within Antifa circles towards more mainstream centre Left liberals, with the majority of Leftist cancel culture directed towards lesser known moderate and liberal academics or media figures”
Exactly. This is 100% true.
I seem to be still in the minority in the US in having embraced COVID fatalism (like Camus’s Plague, but on a much less terrible scale). I got the vaccine. And now, I’ll either get COVID or I won’t. I don’t care that much. It’s all a big show: going and getting tested, wearing masks, etc.
Vaccines for people who want them are about all we can do. And treatments of course like Paxlovid. Beyond that, we just have to accept that what happens happens.
Another satisfying piece, thank you. Something I don't see covered, which many of my conversations or debates come down to . . . is the topic of hospital or health care overload, and the urgency of vaccinating at least those who are most at risk. This connects to the notion of 'flattening the curve', which, I assume, accepts that it would also prolong the curve(s).
I want to be understanding of those who are vaccine hesitant, but this idea is kinda my sticking point. It seems that the real difficulty that many health care workers are experiencing (I've seen it first hand) . . . which often leads to the misery of their patients . . . could be relieved by somehow incentivizing those at risk to take the jab. Unfortunately, this seems to be difficult to implement, without it somehow becoming unhealthy cultural drama.
Nice summary Geary. You know, it is just pathetic how hard the MSM are trying to paint The Convoy as 'racist'. A confederate flag! A confederate flag! Help! Help! We're triggered! Desecration! Desecration! Turns out someone taped a sign to Terry Fox. Pulling down a statue of MacDonald would be fine, however. One zealot even charged the truckers with ... *misogyny*. Help! Help! A misogynist! Justin, save us! What a pathetic country I live in.
Okay Geary, a little lesson in Canadian legal rights is in order. You got a lot right and a lot wrong here. Mostly, the part where you think government should have the right to mandate vaccines, which under Canadian Law it does not. Trudeau and in fact all Canadians and foreign commentators like you might want to refresh their knowledge by reading the Canadian Charter of Rights. Among the rights granted to EVERYONE, is the protection of the right to life, liberty and security of the person. There was a challenge to the law against abortion in 1988, and that law was struck down under this provision because Bertha Wilson, at that time the only woman Chief Justice of Canada said that " the problem was the substance of the law (against abortion) that denied a woman the right to control her own body ...." The right to control our own bodies is thus assured by this important precedent. I don't need a lecture on the misinformation on the safety or efficacy of the vaccines. I know all of it. I am capable of making my own risk benefit assessment without harassment from pubic figures and woke jerks like Trudeau. I am 81 years old and I am going to die on my own terms. The Canadian Charter of Rights agrees. Everything that is happening with regard to the vaccine mandates in Canada is illegal. Any good lawyer could take this case to the Supreme Court and win because we have a precedent, one of the foundations of our legal system. There is more going on here than so called public health. I have a conspiracy theory for you, but never mind.
So the plural of anecdote isn’t data, but I was at a New Years party with a group of friends. All of us were vaccinated and boosted (triple vaxxed if you will). One girl got COVID and apparently had it at the party (she started having symptoms and tested positive the next day). None of the rest of us got it. Even her boyfriend. Now, some infected people just don’t shed the virus in high doses. There was some interesting research into potentially a Pareto-esque distribution of COVID spreading (most people infect nobody and some superspreaders infect everybody - mainly due to viral load, not necessarily behavior). BUT one takeaway is that the vaccines do work to limit transmission. And that fact is borne out by the data. Of course, as you point out, they don’t stop transmission. But they do mute the spread and slow the spread.
Of course, I was a Great Barrington proponent from the start and never thought our strategy should include lockdowns. And I’ve never bought the idea - common to some - that COVID spread primarily due to “bad” behavior. I’ve long pushed back on the idea that getting it was some kind of character flaw.
Think Michael Shellenberger was one of the first to apply the idea of sanctity/purity to COVID attitudes. It falls out of the idea that as religion declines religious impulses pop out in new ways. But mankind has long applied attitudes of religion and shame/cleanliness to disease. What Shellenberger clued me into was the fact that in some circles, there is an idea that being unvaccinated is somehow impure or unclean. It violates their sense of the sacred (invoking Jonathan Haidt’s moral foundations here).
A confederate flag in Canada? As someone who grew up in the state where the Confederacy had its capital, I find that funny. Saw that flag daily for most of my life and I thought it was weird enough to see it in the Midwest or in West Virginia (where it’s actually pretty prevalent, which is incredibly ironic). In Canada it’s just crazy.
“ Far Right and White Supremacist groups have long seen Western conservative movements, particularly American Conservativism, as the biggest roadblock to their ability to recruit and radicalise new members. Of course, they are going to make their presence felt at any publicly visible conservative gathering, because their primary strategic aim is to discredit Conservative movements as a means of growing their tiny support base. There is similar loathing within Antifa circles towards more mainstream centre Left liberals, with the majority of Leftist cancel culture directed towards lesser known moderate and liberal academics or media figures”
Exactly. This is 100% true.
I seem to be still in the minority in the US in having embraced COVID fatalism (like Camus’s Plague, but on a much less terrible scale). I got the vaccine. And now, I’ll either get COVID or I won’t. I don’t care that much. It’s all a big show: going and getting tested, wearing masks, etc.
Vaccines for people who want them are about all we can do. And treatments of course like Paxlovid. Beyond that, we just have to accept that what happens happens.
Great read Geary. As an Ontarian, I'm saddened by my fellow Canadians behaviour towards others who hold differing viewpoints.
Hi Geary. Were you channeling that song “Darkness” by The Police for your title? Some lyrics below. From the 1981 album Ghost in the Machine.
I can dream up schemes when I'm sitting in my seat
I don't see any flaws 'til I get to my feet
I wish I never woke up this morning
Life was easy when it was boring
Another satisfying piece, thank you. Something I don't see covered, which many of my conversations or debates come down to . . . is the topic of hospital or health care overload, and the urgency of vaccinating at least those who are most at risk. This connects to the notion of 'flattening the curve', which, I assume, accepts that it would also prolong the curve(s).
I want to be understanding of those who are vaccine hesitant, but this idea is kinda my sticking point. It seems that the real difficulty that many health care workers are experiencing (I've seen it first hand) . . . which often leads to the misery of their patients . . . could be relieved by somehow incentivizing those at risk to take the jab. Unfortunately, this seems to be difficult to implement, without it somehow becoming unhealthy cultural drama.
Stopped reading after your denial other dangerous ness and Ineffectiveness of the vaccines.
If you can't get that right, nothing else can be trusted.