… And how to fix it. This essay began as a response to an article in Quillette entitled What Putin Really Wants.
Before being critical, I would at least like to give the author credit for presenting the Russian position, even if the view is heavily distorted to present the Washington perspective. So what’s it really all about? In a word, hegemony. At the surface level, the military layer, Russia has a legitimate grievance. Let us remember, nobody ‘won’ the Cold War, unless by this we include the entire world and we have to remember that the fragmentation of Russian Empire and semi-self-governing autonomy of Russia’s bordering satellite states was contingent upon many prevailing pre-set conditions assumed within the Budapest Memorandum (1994) and the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership (1997) (at least in relation to the Ukraine specifically).
I won’t bore you with the details, but at least two of these assumed criteria have been breached. The first is continuing friendly relations between Washington and Russia- the relationship really began soured with America’s abandonment of its treaty commitment to not develop ABM’s. This frosting of relations only continued to sour as America began to apply economic, diplomatic and media pressure to Russian internal politics- blatantly ignoring the axiom that beyond the insistence on adherence to Treaty obligations and the pursuit of strictly limited enlightened self-interest the Sovereign Rights of any internationally recognised nation should trump the Human Rights of any population which falls under the jurisdiction of said Sovereign Nation. Both American Presidents and the Queen have stood and posed for photographs with true international monsters in pursuit of this very narrowly construed self-interest.
Regardless of how callous it may seem to many to state that Presidents and diplomats should simply ignore the free press and international observers on the subjects of Pussyhats, the Uyghurs and the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, one has to consider the downstream consequences of elevating peripheral considerations to the geopolitically relevant layer. Putin may have made his own bed in relation to internationally recognised breach of territorial sovereignty of the annexation of the Crimea and one might argue that there was no external means of averting the Novichok incident given that Putin has nothing to lose in terms of the exhaustion of the West’s cache of economic and diplomatic measures, but this doesn’t mean that deploying a chemical agent on foreign soil, with the risk of innocent bystanders being harmed doesn’t represent an unprecedented breach of international norms and didn’t constitute a hostile act bordering on a signalling of undeclared war. Even during the Cold War, Berlin rules applied in many instances, and all parties observed applied rational principles to avert uncontrollable escalation.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for either the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi or the plight of the Uyghurs. The first is a strategic irrelevancy and is the primary reasons why the Saudis refuse to open up OPEC oil and gas supply. Until President Biden eats a well-deserved slice of humble pie, and signals that the American breach of diplomatic norms has been repaired with a Saudi state visit, American citizens will suffer at the gas pump, the oil price-related compounding of global supply chain issues and inflation will continue, the European and NATO strategic position is weakened and no economic pressure can be brought to bear on Russia. Lower oil prices weaken Russia economically, and a greater global supply of natural gas injects steel into European spines.
The Uyghur position is even more important in geopolitical terms. Much as our hearts might go out to this population, we have to recognise that focusing upon this issue at the geopolitical layer depletes much needed American leverage in the economic sphere in relation to issues which are strategically relevant- such as guarantees to the Indian border, Hong Kong, territorial rights in the South China Sea, Taiwan and the right to supply arms to Americas allies. Plus, China need only point to the sheer hypocrisy- despite having only 5% of the world’s population, America has 25% of the world’s prison population, 40% of whom are African American (compared to a population percentage of 12.4%). America’s staunchest ally, the UK, has judicially refused extradition to the US repeatedly on the grounds of inhumane conditions, particularly in relation to resourcing for the mentally ill or cognitively diverse.
But the key distinction here is that this all makes American decision-making look rationally incoherent and strategically schizophrenic. International relations are governed as much by the adherence to expectation as it is about fulfilling treaty obligations and following one’s assurances. And it’s worth noting that Ukraine itself has strenuously objected to some of the needlessly bellicose and provocative language coming out of Washington. The European Allies’ language has been more restrained and diplomatic, but still demonstrably sceptical. To neutral observers it smacks of an American Foreign Policy Establishment which is desperate to appear strong after the weakness shown in Afghanistan (at least in terms of execution, particularly with regard to the premature withdrawal of air support- even though many, including myself, welcomed an end to the continued expense of American blood and treasure in a futile Forever War).
In the current instance, none of this makes Washington appear strong- other than in the eyes of a media which has a decidedly jaded interest in maintaining their access to power. If anything, on the world stage, the Biden Administration is beginning to look decidedly infantile and amateurish, unless once countenances the sacrifice of prestige and trust internationally for the transitory and puerile political power potentially earned on the domestic front (which is sure to fail anyway, given American dissatisfaction with supply shortages of things as basic as a groceries, or the wage and savings dilution they are experiencing through inflation). Washington could have long since greatly relieved global inflationary pressures and in the process increased their economic leverage over Russia. Instead they singularly failed to sacrifice a little domestic political capital, fearful of the response of their friends in media. It remains a blunder of the highest order.
My final point is that this not really about NATO or Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. It’s all about Nord Stream 2. Hegemony can exist beyond the military level, in terms of the application of economic and pressure by other means- namely by leveraging the economic to make a current foreign Administration unpopular with its own citizenry. Russia wants to punish Ukraine economically by depriving them of their lucrative pipeline fees. Washington rightly fears that the same pressure might one day be brought to bear to leverage its allies, particularly Germany. It’s a strategic stalemate not easily resolved. It should also be noted that this demonstrates yet another slice of Washington hypocrisy. America is quite happy to exercise economic and diplomatic hegemony in its own backyard over Central and South America, but it doesn’t like it when other world powers exercise similar strategic vetoes, by non-military means.
Here is a source which lays out many of the issues surrounding Nord Stream 2:
Ukraine, which like Poland earns gas transit fees, may have to find ways to diversify its own supplies and rethink its function in the European gas system. Until it does, it will continue to depend on Russia.
The irony is that Washington is being outplayed. Russia’s single greatest goal is to diminish American geopolitical power on the world stage. It’s succeeding. Moreover, the Washington position only solidifies the Russian geopolitical realignment with China. By opening up brinksmanship and bellicosity on two fronts, skating right up to the line and no further, China and Russia are effectively operating as a tag team, giving Washington the humiliating choice of either looking even more weak on the world stage, or appearing reckless to their allies by responding in kind. It would appear that Washington prefers to look recklessly strong rather than diminished.
Meanwhile, Russia is sure to extract concessions in relation to Nord Stream 2. It was never about NATO or Ukrainian entanglement in the European economic sphere, but was all about the Russian gambit to gain greater strategic resource leverage over America’s allies. This is why the concession over the Jamal Khashoggi affair to the Saudis is so strategically important. Germany is an export surplus economy which also happens to possess the third largest port in Europe with Hamburg, as well as Bremen. Strategic re-engagement with the Saudis is good for the global economy, blunts Russia’s strategic aims and weakens their economy through reduced oil and gas prices. It’s hurts Russia where it matters without the alarmingly bellicose rhetoric. Better still it outplays Russia at a strategic and diplomatic geopolitical level, recementing the faith of America’s allies- turning the tables by making America appear the master and Russia the rank amateur.
It’s a shame that Democrat political considerations over the potential impacts for the midterms, paired with an unfavourable perception in the corporate legacy media, means it will never happen. It would have been beautiful and would have reassured America’s allies to the point of an American diplomatic resurgence on the world stage. It also points to a singular failure on the part of the American political class to underestimate the American people. If the two events were paired in the American public’s mind, the average American would love it. It would appeal to their sense of national pride, restore faith in the current American presidency and as an added bonus, Americans would get to see their gas prices fall at the pump and a lessoning of the inflationary pressures devaluing their wages and their savings. On both the world stage and domestically Biden would appear strong to everyone- other than to the corporate media toadies whose opinion he seems to care most about. Although American corporate media may be irreversibly failing as a business model, it still enjoys outsized influence amongst anachronistic power brokers, movers and shakers.
I look forward to receiving your emails - helps me cut through the nonsense promulgated elsewhere and always gives a considered, rational and logical underpinning to the thrust and content of your article.
“ Until President Biden eats a well-deserved slice of humble pie, and signals that the American breach of diplomatic norms has been repaired with a Saudi state visit, American citizens will suffer at the gas pump, the oil price-related compounding of global supply chain issues and inflation will continue, the European and NATO strategic position is weakened and no economic pressure can be brought to bear on Russia”
That’s only partially true. America has plenty of oil. Biden’s own environmental policies are standing in the way of fully exploiting it. In a completely laissez faire energy economy, America might be the biggest oil exporter in the world. There are plenty of companies ready to get to work if they weren’t shackled by environmental regulations. We didn’t need foreign oil two years ago to have low gas prices.
With all due respect, the false equivalency between China and the US is disgusting. I’m all for prison reform. But our situation isn’t remotely in the same universe as Chinese genocide. With both Russia and China, this isn’t a question of a competition between rival empires carving up the world. It’s about the free world vs. the autocrats.
“ And it’s worth noting that Ukraine itself has strenuously objected to some of the needlessly bellicose and provocative language coming out of Washington. “
That’s true. Biden’s admin has handled it poorly.
“ even though many, including myself, welcomed an end to the continued expense of American blood and treasure in a futile Forever War”
“Forever War” is a gross mischaracterization but we can agree to disagree. It’s water under the bridge.
“ My final point is that this not really about NATO or Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. It’s all about Nord Stream 2.”
That may be so, but I’ll point out that in all this talk of America being at fault because of NATO expansion, Russia and the US made a promise with Ukraine in 94 to get them to give up the nukes - a promise Russia broke 20 years later in Crimea. Ukraine also remembers when Stalin starved them - killing millions of Ukrainians. They know Putin is a criminal.
“ In the current instance, none of this makes Washington appear strong- other than in the eyes of a media which has a decidedly jaded interest in maintaining their access to power.”
I don’t know about that. Biden’s had plenty of bad press here in the States. I think he’s looked weak at every turn, and I don’t think he’s been successful in impressing the “corporate media,” if that’s in fact what he’s try to do - which I have my doubts about (monocausal explanations are overly reductive).
Anyway, perhaps this is the piece of yours that I’ve disagreed with most strongly. We likely have very different views on global affairs. Still, another very interesting article, Geary.
The press has played a significant role in political decisions throughout history. Much as we might wish it otherwise that is the sad truth. This is just another example.
This is a great piece. I wonder if you are aware of the eminent historian, author and expert on Russia, Professor Joseph Kotkin? He always has fascinating insights into Putin and what he is up to...though keeping everybody guessing is really Putin's gameplan.
I look forward to receiving your emails - helps me cut through the nonsense promulgated elsewhere and always gives a considered, rational and logical underpinning to the thrust and content of your article.
I wish more people could see how it really is.
I can only share to ease my despair.
“ Until President Biden eats a well-deserved slice of humble pie, and signals that the American breach of diplomatic norms has been repaired with a Saudi state visit, American citizens will suffer at the gas pump, the oil price-related compounding of global supply chain issues and inflation will continue, the European and NATO strategic position is weakened and no economic pressure can be brought to bear on Russia”
That’s only partially true. America has plenty of oil. Biden’s own environmental policies are standing in the way of fully exploiting it. In a completely laissez faire energy economy, America might be the biggest oil exporter in the world. There are plenty of companies ready to get to work if they weren’t shackled by environmental regulations. We didn’t need foreign oil two years ago to have low gas prices.
With all due respect, the false equivalency between China and the US is disgusting. I’m all for prison reform. But our situation isn’t remotely in the same universe as Chinese genocide. With both Russia and China, this isn’t a question of a competition between rival empires carving up the world. It’s about the free world vs. the autocrats.
“ And it’s worth noting that Ukraine itself has strenuously objected to some of the needlessly bellicose and provocative language coming out of Washington. “
That’s true. Biden’s admin has handled it poorly.
“ even though many, including myself, welcomed an end to the continued expense of American blood and treasure in a futile Forever War”
“Forever War” is a gross mischaracterization but we can agree to disagree. It’s water under the bridge.
“ My final point is that this not really about NATO or Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty. It’s all about Nord Stream 2.”
That may be so, but I’ll point out that in all this talk of America being at fault because of NATO expansion, Russia and the US made a promise with Ukraine in 94 to get them to give up the nukes - a promise Russia broke 20 years later in Crimea. Ukraine also remembers when Stalin starved them - killing millions of Ukrainians. They know Putin is a criminal.
“ In the current instance, none of this makes Washington appear strong- other than in the eyes of a media which has a decidedly jaded interest in maintaining their access to power.”
I don’t know about that. Biden’s had plenty of bad press here in the States. I think he’s looked weak at every turn, and I don’t think he’s been successful in impressing the “corporate media,” if that’s in fact what he’s try to do - which I have my doubts about (monocausal explanations are overly reductive).
Anyway, perhaps this is the piece of yours that I’ve disagreed with most strongly. We likely have very different views on global affairs. Still, another very interesting article, Geary.
The press has played a significant role in political decisions throughout history. Much as we might wish it otherwise that is the sad truth. This is just another example.
This is a great piece. I wonder if you are aware of the eminent historian, author and expert on Russia, Professor Joseph Kotkin? He always has fascinating insights into Putin and what he is up to...though keeping everybody guessing is really Putin's gameplan.
Ya just have to laugh at "a greater global supply of natural gas injects steel into European spines." - What spines?!